Strategic Research Journal of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources

Strategic Research Journal of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources

Determinants of Food Inflation in Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Zakariya Farajzadeh 1
Niloufar Pourjamali 2
1 Associate Professor Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran. (Invited Scholar of I.R. Academy of Sciences)
2 Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
10.22047/srjasnr.2025.503312.1121
Abstract
Food items inflation play a crucial role among the goods consumed, largely due to their considerable impact on household spending. The objective of this research was to investigate the factors influencing food inflation from 1978 to 2021, employing the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) approach. The findings show a 1% rise in money supply is anticipated to lead to inflation exceeding 1.2%. The corresponding figure for the real exchange rate is approximately 1%. The level of openness has a significant impact on food inflation, with a coefficient exceeding 1.3. A 1% rise in food production is expected to dampen food inflation by 0.8%, while higher oil incomes will result in increased food prices with the corresponding coefficient of more than 0.5. It should be emphasized that the associated figures for short-term decrease to below one-third. Based on the findings, it is advisable to focus on eliminating production bottlenecks and eliminating trade barriers in addition to concentrating exclusively on money supply.
Keywords
Food price index
Liquidity
Production
Subjects
 
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Strategic Research Journal of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources
Volume 10, Issue 2
November 2025
Pages 169-184